Tag Archives: New York Yankees

My latest article at Baseball Prospectus draws numerous comparisons between Aaron Judge and the man whose American League home-run record he broke last year, Roger Maris. In my research for that piece, I dug up an article I wrote for Sports on Earth when the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton in December 2017. Sports on Earth, along with the roughly 175 articles I wrote for it from September 2016 to January 2018, has been completely scrubbed from the internet, as best I can tell, so here’s another of those restored (from my unedited draft, as usual) for your reading pleasure. Worth noting: As of the 2023 season, Judge and Stanton’s highest combined home-run total as teammates was 93 in 2022, but the Yankees did break the single-season team record for home runs in 2018, although they went about it a bit differently than I predicted.

Giancarlo Stanton was officially introduced as a New York Yankee Monday afternoon, but even before he donned his number-27 pinstriped jersey, he made history. Stanton is just the third player in Major League history to be traded in the same offseason that he won his league’s Most Valuable Player award, as well as the third ever to be traded following a 50-home-run season*. As such, he is one of the most impressive acquisitions in the game’s history. What makes his move to the Yankees most compelling, however, is the history he has the potential to make going forward in combination with his new teammate/doppelganger, Aaron Judge.

*Philadelphia Athletics owner Connie Mack sold second baseman Eddie Collins to the White Sox after Collins’ 1914 MVP win; Alex Rodriguez was traded from the Rangers to the Yankees after his 2003 MVP season; Greg Vaughn was traded from the Padres to the Reds after hitting 50 home runs in 1998; Mark McGwire was traded from the A’s to the Cardinals at the 1997 non-wavier deadline following a 52-homer season and in the middle of a 58-homer season.

Stanton and Judge have already made history, or will come Opening Day. That’s when they will take the field as the just the second pair of teammates to both be coming off seasons of 50 or more home runs. The only other time that happened was in 1962, when the Yankees’ Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle attempted to follow up their magical “M&M Boys” season.

In 1961, Maris set the single season home run record with 61. Mantle was hot on his heels until illness and injury limited him to 54. They remain the only teammates ever to hit 50 or more home runs in the same season, and their 115 combined home runs remain a record for two teammates. In 2017, Stanton hit 59 home runs for the Marlins. Judge, as a rookie, hit 52 for the Yankees. Their combined 111 home runs would have ranked second, just four shy of Mantle and Maris’s record, had Stanton and Judge been teammates last year. With Stanton just 28 years old and moving from the cavernous Marlins Park to the homer-friendly new Yankee Stadium, and Judge heading into his sophomore and age-26 season, it would seem that Mantle and Maris’s combined record is well within the grasp of Stanton and Judge. Maris’s American League (and team) record of 61 home runs is also on the endangered list.

Yet, Stanton and Judge need not replicate their 2017 home run totals to combine for a historically significant total. They could shed a combined 11 home runs and still become just the sixth pair of teammates ever to combine for 100 home runs in a single season, joining this list:

Stanton and Judge could also shed up to 15 combined home runs and still join Mantle and Maris as just the second pair of teammates ever to each hit 48 or more home runs in a season. In addition to Mantle and Maris, and Ruth and Gehrig, the only other teammates to hit 47 in the same season were Rodriguez and Palmeiro on the 2001 Rangers (Rodriguez hit 52, Palmeiro 47).

The power potential of the Yankees’ 2018 lineup doesn’t end with Stanton and Judge. Catcher Gary Sanchez hit 33 home runs in 122 games this past season, and has homered at a rate of 49 per 162 games in his young Major League career. The 2018 Yankees thus have the potential to become just the fourth team ever to feature three players with 40 or more home runs. The first three to do it were the 1973 Atlanta Braves (Davey Johnson 43, Darrell Evans 41, Hank Aaron 40), and the 1996 and ’97 Colorado Rockies (Andres Galarraga 47, Vinnie Castilla 40, Ellis Burks 40; Larry Walker 49, Galarraga 41, Castilla 40). No team has ever had three 40-homer hitters including one with 50 or more. The 2018 Yankees could become the first.

The 2018 Yankees’ power potential doesn’t end there, either. First baseman Greg Bird has homered at a rate of 34 per 162 games in his young career, and kept a 42-homer pace through the end of the postseason after returning from the disabled list last year. Having four players with 30 or more homers isn’t quite as rare, though only 12 teams have done it before, including both of the aforementioned Rockies editions, the most recent being the 2009 Phillies. However, given the 50-homer potential of Stanton and Judge, the top-four home run hitters on the 2018 Yankees could combine for more home runs than any four teammates in the game’s history. If Stanton and Judge can average 50 home runs each, and Sanchez and Bird can average 35 each, those four would combine for 170 home runs. The all-time record for four teammates is 165 by those 1961 Yankees (adding Moose Skowron’s 28 and Yogi Berra’s 22 to the M&M Boys’ 115).

Health is the obvious caveat to all of this. Bird lost most of the last two seasons to injury (a torn shoulder labrum wiped out his 2016 campaign, and ankle surgery sidelined him for 103 games this past season). Sanchez spent time on the DL in 2017 and plays a physically demanding position that requires scheduled days off. Stanton’s injury history is checkered, as well. In the five years prior to his MVP season, the newest Yankee averaged just 115 games played and just 30 home runs per season (with a pace of 43 homers per 162 games). Just as we can expect Stanton and Judge’s home-run totals to regress slightly from their record-setting 2017 marks, we, and the Yankees, would be wise to anticipate some time lost to injury among that quartet of sluggers.

Still, this is the offseason, when imaginations and expectations run wild. So, let’s not stop short of the one other, far less obscure record that might be within the grasp of the 2018 Yankees’ lineup. That is the record for the most home runs by a team in a single season. As you may have guessed, those 1961 Yankees set that record, breaking the mark of the 1947 Giants (led by Johnny Mize’s 51 taters) by 19 with 240. Three teams surpassed the ’61 Yankees’ record in 1996, with the Orioles (led by Brady Anderson’s 50 round-trippers) besting them all with 257. The following season, the Mariners set the current record of 264 led by Ken Griffey Jr.’s 56 dingers. Could the 2018 Yankees get to 265?

It’s not an absurd question. The 2017 Yankees’ 241 already ranked 16th all-time, besting the ’61 team by one (though the Yankee team record now belongs to the 2012 edition, which hit 245, with 10 players in double digits led by Curtis Granderson’s 43). Let’s assume everyone stays healthy, and the Yankees get the aforementioned 170 home runs out of Stanton, Judge, Sanchez and Bird. Shortstop Didi Gregorius has hit 20 or more in each of the last two seasons, with a career-high of 25 in 2017. Left fielder Brett Gardner has averaged 15 per season over the last four years, with a career-high of 21 in 2017. Let’s say those two combine for another 35. Centerfielder Aaron Hicks broke out with 15 home runs in 88 games last year. Let’s be optimistic and say that he could add 25 (or, more realistically, that Hicks, Gardner and Gregorius could combine for 60, averaging 20 per player). Third baseman Chase Headley has averaged 13 home runs per season over the last five years. Second base should ultimately be manned by top prospect Gleyber Torres, who has averaged 16 home runs per 162 games over the last two years. Let’s say the Yankees can get 20 total home runs out of third and second base.

That all adds up to 250 home runs, which would mean the Yankees would need another 15 home runs from the bench—not counting the third- and second-base reserves, for whom we’ve already accounted—in a scenario in which their starters at the other seven positions all stay healthy. That’s not impossible, but it’s not terribly likely, either. Still, the Yankees should be plenty content with having what could be the greatest power-hitting duo in Major League history in the heart of their lineup, and quite possibly the greatest power-hitting foursome, as well, all of them 28 years old or younger in the coming season.

As Stanton said on Monday, “I feel sorry for the baseballs.”