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Deleted Scenes: The Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips extensions

When Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips signed extensions on the same day, April 10, 2012, I wrote an analysis of their deals for SI.com. However, after discussion with my editor, I reworked the initial draft, dumping the nuts-and-bolts analysis of the two players and their contracts in favor of expanding my points about the impact of those extensions on the market for second baseman going forward. The published article can be read here. However, in light of the Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler trade and news of the Reds’ interest in trading Phillips, I thought it would be worth posting the original draft here.

Tuesday was a bad day for any team hoping to fill an organization hole at second base by making a big free agent splash in the next couple of years as two of the top second basemen in baseball, Ian Kinsler of the Rangers and Brandon Phillips of the Reds, both signed contract extensions that will keep them under the control of their current teams through 2017. With those contracts, just two of the top eight second basemen in baseball over the last three seasons (per Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement) are due to become free agents before 2015, and of those two, one, the Phillies Chase Utley, has been diminished by a degenerative knee condition, and the other, the Yankees’ Robinson Cano, seems like a lock to be extended by his current team before reaching free agency after the 2013 season. That alone works in favor of both extensions, which were handed out by teams whose time is now, the two-time defending American League pennant winning Rangers and 2010 NL Central champion Reds.

On the surface, the extensions and the players who signed them are very similar. Both men are slick-fielding second basemen who have averaged in excess of 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases over the past six seasons, thanks in part to their hitting-friendly home ballparks. Phillips’ deal was for $72.5 million over six years. Kinsler’s was for $75 million over five years plus a club option for a sixth season. A closer look reveals a larger gap between the two men and the money they’ll make, though the difference in the latter corresponds appropriately to the former.

First, the contracts. Phillips’ extension is being reported as a six-year deal, but the first year of that deal is 2012, and he’s making effectively the same salary on his new deal as he was making on his old one, which was set to expire after this, his option year. Phillips’ 2012 salary increased from $12.25 million to $12.5 million with his new deal. When you’re talking about big money contracts in major league baseball, a quarter million dollars is a rounding issue, so, really, Phillips’ contract is for $60 million over five years, significantly less than the $75 million Kinsler is guaranteed over the next five seasons (which includes a $5 million buyout for his team option in 2018, or year six of his new deal). Indeed, if you lop off that buyout, Kinsler’s average salary over the next five seasons will be $14 million, while the top salary of Phillips’ contract will be the $14 million he’ll earn in 2017, the result of a series of $1 million increases starting from his $10 million salary in 2013.

So, Kinsler will make more, but he’s also the better player, and the gap in quality between the two appears larger than the gap in their contracts. From that alone it seems safe to say that the Rangers will get more bang for their buck than the Reds. One of the ironies about the comparison between the two is that, while Phillips has won the Gold Glove in three of the last four seasons, advanced stats have shown Kinsler to be the better fielder in each of the last three years. Ultimate Zone Rating has Kinsler leading by a little, but John Dewan’s plus/minus system and the historical stats published in volume three of his Fielding Bible have Kinsler in front by a lot, having saved 47 runs to Phillips’ 18 over the last three seasons.

On the other side of the ball, the gap is easier to see. Over the past three seasons, Kinsler has averaged a .262/.352/.465 line with 24 home runs and 25 stolen bases, while Phillips has averaged a .284/.338/.445 line with 19 homers and 18 steals. Over that span, Kinsler leads Phillips in on-base percentage and slugging percentage despite hitting for an average 22 points lower. That shows you how much more patient and powerful Kinsler is at the plate. In two of those seasons, Kinsler hit 30 home runs and stole 30 bases, and in the last two combined, he walked more than he struck out, setting a career-high with 87 unintentional walks in 2011. Phillips, meanwhile, has topped out at 20 homers, 25 steals and 45 unintentional walks over the last three years.

What’s more, Kinsler is one of the highest-percentage basestealers in the game. In 160 career attempts, Kinsler has been caught just 24 times, an 85 percent success rate. Phillips, by comparison, as been caught 21 times in the last two seasons in just 51 attempts. His resulting 59 percent success rate is poor enough that he would help his team more by never attempting another steal than he would by continuing to run into outs 31 percent of the time.

Add up Kinsler’s advantages at the plate, on the bases, and in the field, and it’s clear that he’s a significantly better player than Phillips despite being comparable on the surface. Using Baseball-Reference’s WAR (hereafter, bWAR), Kinsler has been worth an average of 4.7 wins above replacement to the Rangers over the last three years compared to an average of just 2.9 wins above replacement for Phillips over that same span. That’s not meant as a knock on Phillips. Only six second basemen in all of baseball have averaged more wins above replacement over the last three seasons: Cano, Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Kinsler, and Howie Kendrick, the last of whom is in a dead-heat with Phillips at 2.97 bWAR per year since 2009. Remove Utley, and that means there are just four second basemen in baseball who are clearly better than Brandon Phillips. As for Kinsler, who ranks fifth on that list, he’s closer to the top dog, Cano, than he is to Kendrick and Phillips.

Kinsler also has the advantage of being almost exactly a year younger than Phillips, who will turn 31 at the end of June, though with Kinsler’s option, both could turn 36 before their contracts expire. That pushes both contracts right up against the danger zone for middle infielders in terms of decline, but that isn’t a major gamble given the potential for both men to earn their keep in their early 30s. However, because Kinsler is a better player, he has more room for decline, again not only justifying his larger price tag but making his larger deal, which would be worth $80 million over the next six seasons if his $10 million option for 2018 is picked up, the better bet to earn out on the field.

 
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Posted by on November 22, 2013 in Deleted Scenes

 

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TV Party: Clubhouse Confidential appearances 2013-14 offseason

It appears I’m going to be a regular correspondent for Clubhouse Confidential this offseason, so rather than put up a new post after each appearance, I’ll just use this one as an archive for all of them with the newest up top.

November 21

Thursday’s topic: The Ian Kinsler-Prince Fielder trade. My solo take followed by discussion with Joel Sherman of the New York Post:

 

November 14

Brian Kenny and crew had me back on Clubhouse Confidential on Thursday to discuss the Most Valuable Player awards, which were given out just a few hours later on the same network. Here are my spots, with FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and the Detroit Free Press’s Drew Sharp.

On the AL race and the definition of value:

On the NL race:

 
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Posted by on November 15, 2013 in TV and video

 

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Clubhouse Confidential

I made my cable television debut on Wednesday discussing the National League Most Valuable Player race, and the MVP award in general, on MLB Network’s Clubhouse Confidential. I’m hoping it’s the first of many, of course. Here’s the segement via MLB.com:

 
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Posted by on November 8, 2013 in TV and video

 

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Season’s Previews

With what I’ve been calling Preview Week drawing to a close, here’s a catch-all post the various preview stuff I participated in this week, silly as some of it may be.

At SI.com:

Expanded experts’ picks

Why Your Team Won’t Win The World Series (with Jay Jaffe)

Ten Must-See Games for 2013

Five must-see series in April

Reading into spring statistics: Which players’ spring performances are likely a sign of things to come

At SB Nation:

The Year in NL Pitching

2003 MLB season preview: The unexpected (with the other Designated Columnists)

Pitchers are people too: Can the Yankees’ rotation guide them to October baseball?

And while I’m at it, here are the other Hit and Run posts I wrote this week:

Buster Posey extension good for Giants, bad for free agency

Wainwright extension a perfect compromise for both sides

Johan Santana’s career threatened by reoccurrence of shoulder tear

Lohse agrees to terms with Brewers, ending long national nightmare

Opening Day Rosters: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

Oh, and I also wrote the post below this one, It’s Not Tim McCarver’s Fault You Hate Him.

 
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Posted by on March 29, 2013 in My Writing

 

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It’s Not Tim McCarver’s Fault You Hate Him

Tim McCarver, the longtime FOX broadcaster who has been a staple of Major League Baseball’s national coverage since 1984, announced on Wednesday that 2013 will be his final season in the broadcast booth. McCarver, who will turn 72 this October, has told FOX not to renew his contract after this, its final season, bringing to an end a broadcasting career that netted him the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s Ford C. Frick award in 2012 but also a legion of detractors.

Indeed, McCarver’s retirement will be greeted with elation by many baseball fans who are embittered by McCarver’s omnipresence in MLB’s national television coverage, including FOX’s Saturday games of the week, the All-Star game and postseason telecasts, and especially the World Series. McCarver has called 23 of the last 28 World Series, including each of the last 13, while broadcasting greats such as Vin Scully, Bob Uecker, Jon Miller, and many others, many of whom have since passed away, have been resigned to the radio or their couches. I share that lament, but I don’t blame McCarver for it. Rather, McCarver’s legacy as a broadcaster has become permanently entwined with FOX’s commandeering of the baseball’s national broadcasts dating back to 1996 and exclusive coverage of the World Series since 2000.

McCarver’s is very much a case of familiarity breeding contempt, something which is one of the principal occupational hazards of baseball broadcasting. Broadcasting baseball, particularly in McCarver’s role as color commentator, requires one to talk largely off-the-cuff for three to four hours at a time. Though the conversation is guided by the action on the field and shared with a play-by-play man, that’s still an incredible amount of time to have to fill. Even if the commentator in question has the taste to know when not to speak and has particularly astute insights to share when he does speak, it won’t take long for him to exhaust his supply of amusing and enlightening anecdotes, his analysis will begin to become repetitive, his inevitable mistakes will pile up, and his personal quirks, faults, and preferences will become magnified over the course of a series, a season, and most certainly a career, and McCarver has been helming national broadcasts since 1980, when he was an alternate on NBC’s Game of the Week.

As someone who grew up in the New York area in the 1980s, McCarver, who called Mets games on WOR Channel 9 starting in 1983, was one of the first voices I heard when I got into the game and remained a daily presence on local broadcasts for the Mets and later the Yankees through the 2001 season (after which he spent a final season calling Giants games before stepping away from local broadcasts). Though my knowledge of the game was just forming at the time, I remember the mid-80s McCarver as an insightful, sharp, and highly regarded analyst. As a fan over the last three decades, I have witnessed a decline in his performance and often longed for a replacement for FOX’s omnipresent lead duo of McCarver and play-by-play man Joe Buck.

McCarver’s retirement only solves half of the problem, if that. Buck will surely persist with a new partner, and there’s no guarantee that McCarver’s replacement will be an upgrade. After all, Joe Morgan’s not all that busy these days and the color man on FOX’s secondary team last season was Eric Karros. What FOX should do is take this opportunity to give baseball fans two new voices. When ESPN finally removed Morgan from their Sunday night broadcasts after the 2010 season, they got rid of the excellent Miller simultaneously and brought in an outstanding new team led by Dan Schulman and Orel Hershiser (though they are taking a step back this year, filling the third chair vacated by Terry Francona with John Kruk, more evidence that it could get worse than McCarver).

Even then, FOX’s broadcasters are only a small part of what’s wrong with its baseball broadcasts. It’s the cumulative effect of overblown graphics, gimmicks, self-promotion, a patronizing tone (of which McCarver, admittedly, was often guilty), and a general sense that the action on the field was the least-interesting part of the program and unable to hold viewer’s attention on its own merits, all compounded by the blackouts, late start times, and extended commercial breaks dictated by the network, that trained us to cringe at the sound of McCarver’s Memphis twang. Compare a game broadcast on FOX to one broadcast on the MLB Network, which seems to truly love and value the game on the field, and the difference is stark.

I’m not saying the criticisms of McCarver weren’t valid. His retirement is clearly coming several years too late, but FOX’s baseball broadcasts seem unlikely to improve without him, not unless they take this opportunity to alter their entire approach to the game. Say what you want about McCarver as a broadcaster, but you can’t argue that Tim McCarver doesn’t love baseball.

 
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Posted by on March 27, 2013 in Deleted Scenes

 

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Fake Cards: 1977 Baltimore Orioles

I created the two cards below in Photoshop for an article I wrote for SB Nation on Reggie Jackson’s 1976 season with the Orioles. Jackson’s lone season in Baltimore always seemed like one lost to history to me, in part because he signed with the Yankees that November, in plenty of time for Topps to airbrush a Yankee uniform on Jackson for his regular-issue 1977 card (worse yet, the base photo is from his days with the A’s per the green-and-gold sleeve of a teammate over his right shoulder).

While I was at it, I couldn’t resist giving Bobby Grich a 1977 Orioles card was well. Grich and Jackson were the Orioles’ two best hitters in 1976, but both signed with other clubs as free agents in November. Grich’s actual 1977 Topps card shows him on the Angels (without a cap, but with an airbrushed collar). Because Grich was capless on his 1976 card as well, he never appeared on a Topps card in the white-front cap the Orioles wore in his final two seasons in Baltimore.

The Jackson card is built from a rare proof of Jackson in an Orioles uniform on a Yankees template and Al Bumbry’s actual 1977 Orioles card. Keith Olbermann owns one of eight of the Jackson proofs known to be in circulation and the card below is built from the scan of that card he posted to his MLB.com blog two years ago. The Grich card is built from a variety of actual 1977 cards (including Grich’s, Bumbry’s, and Rennie Stennett’s) and photo found on ebay (which was also the source of the two autographs).

1977 Topps Reggie Jackson proof (Orioles Photoshop) 1977 Topps Bob Grich (Orioles Photoshop)

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in Baseball Cards, Fake Cards

 

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Mets Contracts

What follows is the list of Mets contracts that I assembled while researching my SI.com piece on David Wright and the Mets history of bad contracts. This is raw data in that the dollars and years listed are the total values of the contracts announced upon their signing, not what the Mets wound up paying or for how long. The seasons and bWAR totals, however, are only those that came with the Mets.

The top 23 contracts (24 with Wright now included) are, best I can tell, the most expensive contracts in Mets history by total dollars. The ten below that (after the break in the chart) are other contracts of lesser value from prior to 1997 that were nonetheless major deals at the time.

Player $ (in millions) Years Seasons bWAR
David Wright $            138.00 8 2013-
Johan Santana $            137.50 6 2008-

14.6

Carlos Beltran $            119.00 7 2005-2011

30.2

Mike Piazza $              91.00 7 1999-2005

17.6

Jason Bay $              66.00 4 2010-2012

1.1

David Wright $              55.00 6 2007-2012

28.8

Pedro Martinez $              53.00 4 2005-2008

7.6

Billy Wagner $              43.00 4 2006-2009

4.7

Tom Glavine $              42.50 3 2003-2006

12.5

Kevin Appier $              42.00 4 2001

3.3

Francisco Rodriguez $              37.00 3 2009-2011

2.5

Bobby Bonilla $              29.00 5 1992-1995

8.9

Robin Ventura $              23.00 3 1999-2001

10.3

Cliff Floyd $              26.00 4 2003-2006

7.0

Luis Castillo $              25.00 4 2008-2010

0.9

Todd Hundley $              21.00 4 1997-1998

2.2

Kazuo Matsui $              20.00 3 2004-2006

0.2

Mike Cameron $              19.50 3 2004-2005

3.0

Bernard Gilkey $              19.40 4 1997-1998

9.6

Roger Cedeño $              18.00 4 2002-2003

-0.9

Todd Zeile $              18.00 3 2000-2001

2.7

Dwight Gooden $              15.45 3 1992-1994

4.8

Bret Saberhagen $              15.38 3 1993-1995

9.7

John Olerud $              14.50 3 1997-1999

16.5

Pete Harnisch $                9.00 3 1995-1997

0.3

Eddie Murray $                7.50 2 1992-1993

2.3

Vince Coleman $              12.00 4 1991-1993

1.7

Frank Viola* $                7.90 3 1989-1991

9.1

Kevin McReynolds $                5.50 3 1989-1991

7.6

Ron Darling $                5.30 3 1989-1991

0.4

Dwight Gooden $                6.70 3 1989-1991

6.6

Keith Hernandez $                8.00 5 1985-1989

14.8

Gary Carter** $              10.60 5 1985-1989

10.3

George Foster $              10.00 5 1982-1986

3.4

*Viola signed a three-year deal with the Twins but was traded to the Mets mid-way through the first season. The contract figures here are for the full contract.

**Carter signed a seven-year deal with the Expos but was traded to the Mets after two seasons. The contract figures here are for Carter’s five years with the Mets only.

Update: the original version of this post listed the total value of Bobby Bonilla’s first Mets contract as $39 million. That was a typo, it was actually $29 million, corrected above.

 
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Posted by on December 1, 2012 in Lists

 

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